Quality Growth

Three growth scenarios were developed with related transit investments and zoned land use densities to the year 2035.  The growth scenarios assume different levels of development density are moved to the BRT corridors and downtown.  The three scenarios are:

  • COG Trend Forecast – assumes the patterns of lower density growth on the urban fringe continues into the future as it has in the past.
  • Constrained TOD – assumes medium density in the BRT corridors and downtown. SEGA is built, accommodating 55,000 new residents on the urban fringe. The market demand for TOD style housing is constrained by Fresno demographics, income and a continued depressed real estate market.
  • Aggressive TOD – assumes all the growth that would have gone to SEGA is moved to the BRT corridors and downtown, and that changes in the employment base of Fresno have improved the demand for TOD style housing.

Our Question:

What effect does development density and mix have on people's travel behavior in specific transit corridors and downtown?

Comparing Scenarios

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Our Conclusion:

We can make a big difference in people's travel behavior in a few well-planned priotiry transit corridors.

People will walk more, bicycle more and take transit more when lots of destinations are in close proximity.

The three potential high-density corridors studied were:

  • Blackstone Avenue from downtown Fresno to the Ventura/Kings Canyon from downtown Fresno to the River Park Transit Center
  • Ventura/Kings Canyon from downtown Fresno to the edge of development (Clovis Avenue)
  • Shaw Avenue from Highway 99 to CSU Fresno, then north on Highway 168 to a high-density employment center planned for north Clovis.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Policy Recommendations:

  1. Increase the number of people and businesses in close proximity to designated high-capacity transit corridors and downtown.
  2. Plan for and build TOD housing developments that meet the needs of a mix of middle to lower incomes and families.
  3. Restrict the growth of new development on the urban fringes and into farmlands with incentives, disincentives and urban growth boundaries.
  4. Grow the transit, bicycle and pedestrian mode shares by making it more attractive to use alternate modes.
  5. Decrease the automobile mode share and VMT by making it less attractive to drive a car in Fresno.
  6. Attract new residents to Fresno who will more likely want to live in TOD-style market-priced development, including young urban professionals, seniors, and future high speed rail commuters.
  7. Create processes that cross jurisdictional and departmental boundaries to link transportation and land use planning decisions together.